Economists say the minutes released today had a slightly more hawkish tone, and confirm a live November monetary policy decision.
The final paragraph said the RBA Board have a "low tolerance for a slower return of inflation to target than currently expected," and the November decision would depend on incoming data.
Labour Force figures from September (out 19th October) Q3 CPI inflation (out 25th October) and retail trade for September (out 30th October) will all influence whether the cash rate stays at 4.10% on November 7th, the same day as the Melbourne Cup.
The war in Israel has also added to the upside risks for fuel prices, and any escalation of the conflict is likely to cause more major disruptions to the oil supply.
Hamas' attacks and the retaliatory air strikes on Gaza took place after October's monetary policy decision, but even then, the minutes acknowledge high fuel prices are "delaying progress" on reducing headline inflation.
Gareth Aird, CommBank economist, said the bank is ascribing a 40% probability to a 25 basis point increase in November, taking the cash rate to 4.35%.
He said the minutes were more hawkish than those from September, but also suggested this might be a deliberate strategy from the reserve bank.
"We believe the minutes today were used as a vehicle to keep markets on notice that the tightening cycle is not necessarily over," Mr Aird said.
The RBA highlighted significant upside risks of concern, including persistent service price inflation and rising fuel prices.
Australia's surging property market was also acknowledged, the board noting that while rising house prices alone would not warrant a rate hike, the associated rise in household wealth could increase household consumption by more than currently assumed.
Westpac Chief Economist Luci Ellis believes the minutes show the increased willingness of the RBA to spell out that no surprises means no further moves, and barring surprises in the forthcoming data, the cash rate should remain at 4.10%.
"A significant upside surprise in the September quarter CPI release, along with further evidence that the real economy is proving more resilient than expected, might be enough to change their view and thus their decision," Ms Ellis said.
"But this is not our central case at present."
RBA Governor Michele Bullock will speak tomorrow at the Australian Financial Security Authority (AFSA) summit in Sydney, which Ms Ellis says could further elucidate the board's thinking.
What to look for in the upcoming data
September Labour Force (out October 19th)
Unemployment figures will be out later this week in the first of the major data sets that will influence the RBA's thinking come November 7th.
The general consensus is for unemployment to remain at 3.7%, with an extra 20,000 people in employment.
CommBank differ slightly in calling unemployment to rise slightly to 3.8%.
As morbid as it sounds, an increase in unemployment is what the RBA is looking for: less people in work tends to bring down spending, and therefore inflation.
If instead the ABS record a drop in unemployment, this would be a significant upside risk for the November decision.
Q3 CPI Inflation (out October 25th)
The all important figure will likely be Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation for the September quarter.
RBA modelling suggests there will be a 0.9% quarterly increase, which would lend itself to a rate pause.
However, economists from NAB are predicting prices to have instead risen 1.1% throughout the quarter, and prompt a 25 basis point increase to the cash rate.
September Retail Trade (out October 30th)
Finally, the RBA will also look for a drop in retail trade, which suggests the tightening that has happened so far has been effective in curbing spending.
The major banks will reveal forecasts for retail trade closer to the date.
CommBank has already published its household spending tracker for September, which showed a 0.5% monthly increase, another potential upside risk.
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