As always, forecasts are coming in thick and fast as to what the Reserve Bank will do to the cash rate target on Tuesday 4 October.
That it will increase is pretty much a certainty, but the question is, by how much?
There was some speculation earlier in the month the cash rate target will move by a more moderate 25 basis points as the RBA waits to see the effects of its current tightening policy.
However, much of the chatter has shifted to a 50 basis point rise after some recent revealing economic figures.
Retail trade posted another record month in August, to nearly $35 billion according to ABS figures, while the ABS' new monthly inflation figure came in at 6.8% not accounting for crucial yet volatile items such as fuel and groceries.
From August 2021 to August 2022, fuel prices increased 15% while fruit and vegetable prices increased 18.6%.
Westpac chief economist Bill Evans
Mr Evans said the RBA is still yet to hit a neutral rate - one that favours neither economic growth nor contraction - though the definition of neutral is up for debate.
"Rate hikes are expected to continue out to February 2023 as the December inflation report is likely to show consumer prices lifting strong in the December quarter, we expect a 2.5% jump in the headline and a still hefty 1.2% rise for underlying inflation," he said.
Westpac economists expect the terminal cash rate target to reach 3.60%.
CommBank head of Australian economics Gareth Aird
Mr Aird and CommBank economists hold a contrary view, expecting the RBA to hike by 25 basis points on Tuesday, bringing the cash rate target to 2.60%.
"[The RBA will] raise the cash rate by a 'business as usual' 25 basis points," he said.
"We expect inflation to slow considerably in 2023 - we expect it to fall back to the top of the RBA's target band by late 2023."
ANZ economists
ANZ economists said there are still signs demand is strong in the economy.
"Data on job vacancies and the monthly CPI indicator do not change our expectation that the RBA will hike the cash rate 50 basis points at its meeting on Tuesday," they said.
Senior economist Catherine Birch was more bullish still.
[There are still an] extraordinarily high number of job vacancies. The fact that a leading indicator of the labour market is still incredibly strong suggests the RBA may have to do more than we currently expect to slow demand growth," Ms Birch said.
"There is still momentum on the inflation front. The annual change in the monthly CPI indicator was relatively steady between 6.8% to 7.0% year-on-year between June and August."
AMP chief economist Shane Oliver
Mr Oliver said the RBA should scale back to 25 basis point rises but also said 50 basis points is the most likely outcome.
He said a "nice compromise" would be 40 basis points, which would bring the cash rate to a more normalised 2.75%.
"The RBA is fortunately starting to sound a bit more balanced and aware of the way monetary policy impacts with a lag," he said.
"The danger is that ... central banks have become locked into supersized hikes based on backward looking inflation and jobs data, and a loss of confidence in their ability to forecast inflation at a time when they should be giving more attention to monetary policy lags."
Mr Oliver said AMP's view is that the RBA will start to slow rate hikes ahead of the US central bank as Australians are more sensitive to interest rate rises because they're more indebted.
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