There are four recent key indicators that the RBA would have on its radar that show cash rate rises are doing their job.
First, the ABS' monthly inflation number came in lower than expected at 6.9% in October, though this is a new release and the 'basket of goods' measured has so far been inconsistent.
If the basket of goods measured was consistent from September to October, the result would have been 7.1%.
Second, retail sales declined for the first time in 2022, falling 0.2% in October.
Third, property prices fell 1% in November, with some markets 6-7% down from their peaks earlier in the year; it's also the most pronounced seven-month decline since 1980.
Fourth, the value of new home lending was down 2.7% in October, and is down more than one-sixth compared to a year ago.
Bill Evans, Westpac chief economist: +25bps
Despite these indicators, Mr Evans said the RBA should not waiver.
"The added attraction of moving in December is that the next meeting will not be until February 7, providing ample opportunity to assess the cumulative impact of the normalisation process," he said.
While recent RBA board minutes showed members mulled over 50 basis point increases, Mr Evans said this would not be a consistent approach.
"Having unexpectedly pivoted from increments of 50 basis points to 25 basis points in October moving back to 50 would not have been a 'consistent' action," he said.
Westpac expects the cash rate to peak at 3.85% by mid-2023.
Gareth Aird, CBA head of Australian economics: +25bps
CBA said there's an 80% probability of a 25bps cash rate hike at Tuesday's RBA board meeting.
"The RBA is still flying blind to a degree given the last few rate hikes have not yet hit home borrowers from a cash flow perspective," Mr Aird said.
"At CBA there is on average a three month lag between RBA rate hikes and when a borrower on a minimum mortgage repayment schedule experiences an increase in their mortgage payment.
"There is also a very big expiry of fixed rate home loans over the next year which means monetary policy is operating with a greater than usual lag."
CBA expects the cash rate to peak at 3.10%, meaning the RBA will pause after this month's meeting, however said there is a "risk case" the peak will be 3.35%.
NAB economists: +25bps
NAB economist Taylor Nugent said Australia's economy is still strong and that any negative data coming through is relatively "benign".
"With such risks, we think it is too early for the RBA to consider pausing rate increases and we expect the RBA to continue in a string of 25 basis point increases, lifting rates in December, February and March," Mr Nugent said.
ANZ economists: +25bps
ANZ economists Brian Martin and Daniel Hynes said not increasing the cash rate would be an odd move.
"To not tighten by 25 basis points on Tuesday would seem at odds with that commitment given the drop in unemployment to 3.4% and the acceleration in wages growth," they said.
"We are, however, alert to the prospect of substantive changes in the post meeting statement. In particular, any reference to a possible pause being brought explicitly into the statement - at present such a reference is in the minutes and not the post meeting statement. This would be a dovish development."
Shane Oliver, AMP chief economist: +25bps but risk of pause
Dr Oliver said pausing would be risky given the unemployment rate of 3.4% is very strong, and pausing risks a "price-wages spiral".
"The increasing evidence of a peak in inflation pressures and a slowdown in the economy adds to our confidence that we are getting near the peak in the cash rate,” he said.
"The debate on Tuesday at the RBA board meeting is likely to be between a pause or a 0.25% hike.
"Maybe the RBA should just hike by 0.15%, taking the cash rate to a neat 3%.”
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